94949 Micro-Market Authority Report: January 2026

Source Data: Rapattoni MLS

Data Effective Date: January 27, 2026

Analysis Period: 90-Day Rolling Average (Oct 15, 2025 – Jan 26, 2026)

The 94949 ZIP code enters 2026 as a definitive Seller’s Market. While broad regional headlines often suggest a cooling trend, the hyper-local reality in South Novato is one of extreme inventory scarcity and resilient demand. With a ZIP-wide 0.91 Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) and a +2.2% 12-month appreciation rate, the market remains fundamentally undersupplied.

The 94949 Micro-Market Breakdown

1. Marin Country Club Estates

• Median Closed Price: $2,375,000

• Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $1,017.03

• Months Supply of Inventory (MSI): 1.5 Months

• Median Days on Market (DOM): 13 Days

• Sale-to-List Price %: 88.98%

• Liquidity (Active/Closed): 3 Active / 6 Closed

• The Noteworthy: This is the luxury anchor of the 94949 market. While properties are commanding a record-breaking $1,000+ median PPSF, the 89% sale-to-list retention indicates that buyers are successfully negotiating off high initial aspirations. Translation: Truly turnkey homes sell quickly at a premium, while homes that need work sell for much less and often see price reductions and/or longer Days on Market.

2. Pointe Marin

• Median Closed Price: $1,550,000

• Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $545.39

• Months Supply of Inventory (MSI): 0.0 Months (Sold Out)

• Median Days on Market (DOM): 14 Days

• Sale-to-List Price %: 93.53%

• Liquidity (Active/Closed): 0 Active / 5 Closed

• The Noteworthy: This enclave is effectively "sold out" of active inventory. A 14-day median sales speed reflects intense demand for mid-tier luxury homes built between 1988 and 2003. Pointe Marin's newer home status brings quick sales.

3. Pacheco Valle

• Median Closed Price: $1,875,000

• Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $501.80

• Months Supply of Inventory (MSI): 0.0 Months (Sold Out)

• Median Days on Market (DOM): 33 Days

• Sale-to-List Price %: 97.98%

• Liquidity (Active/Closed): 0 Active / 3 Closed

• The Noteworthy: Offering the largest median floor plans in the ZIP at over 3,000 sq. ft., Pacheco Valle currently boasts the highest pricing power for sellers, with 98% price retention. The combination of country vibe and quickest Novato commute times to SF have value in today's market. 

4. Bel Marin Keys

• Median Closed Price: $1,662,500

• Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $808.66

• Months Supply of Inventory (MSI): 1.5 Months

• Median Days on Market (DOM): 46 Days

• Sale-to-List Price %: 89.52%

• Liquidity (Active/Closed): 2 Active / 4 Closed

• The Noteworthy: Waterfront living carries a significant $800+ PPSF premium. The market is more deliberate here, as boat-dock properties require a more specific buyer profile, leading to a 46-day median sales cycle.

5. Loma Verde

• Median Closed Price: $1,225,000

• Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $712.21

• Months Supply of Inventory (MSI): 0.0 Months (Sold Out)

• Median Days on Market (DOM): 52 Days

• Sale-to-List Price %: 90.04%

• Liquidity (Active/Closed): 0 Active / 5 Closed

• The Noteworthy: Extreme pricing sensitivity exists here. While there are no active listings, the 52-day median DOM suggests that properties missing the initial "golden window" face significant price corrections to get to closing. Seller tip: price to get multiple offers, rather than testing market.

6. Hamilton Field

• Median Closed Price: $1,140,000

• Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $483.19

• Months Supply of Inventory (MSI): 7.5 Months

• Median Days on Market (DOM): 36 Days

• Sale-to-List Price %: 95.64%

• Liquidity (Active/Closed): 5 Active / 2 Closed

• The Noteworthy: This is currently the clear Buyer’s Opportunity in South Novato. With a 7.5-month median supply—the highest in the ZIP—buyers have significant negotiating leverage for newer (2000-era) construction at the lowest PPSF in the area. The relatively high inventory level reflects several homes that did not sell in 2025 coming back to market in early 2026 to capture buyer interest in the new year.

2026 Strategic Guidance

For Buyers: Prioritize Hamilton Field for value. The price per foot differential between Hamilton ($483) and the Country Club ($1,017) is at its widest point of the current cycle, offering a rare entry point for newer housing stock.

For Sellers: In segments with zero/extreme low inventory like Pointe Marin or Loma Verde, your first 14 days are critical. Accurate, "decision-ready" pricing is non-negotiable; if a listing lingers past 30 days, the probability of a price correction increases exponentially.

Other Notes

The "K-Shaped" Economic Divide

• Prosperity Gap: Older, affluent households are seeing wealth gains from strong equity markets, while younger, lower-income buyers face rising delinquency rates on car and student loans.

• Regional Split: Sun Belt markets (like Dallas and Tampa) are saturated with record inventory, while Northeast and Midwest markets remain in a persistent "inventory drought.

The 6% Mortgage Threshold

• Data shows a clear psychological "tripwire" for buyers: at 6.5%, demand remains sidelined; at 6.1%, buyers begin to move aggressively. Compass projects 2026 rates to average 6.4%.

Marin County Specific Realities (Thoughts and observations based on Dec 2025 sales countywide)

• High-End Resilience: While the broad market slows, Marin's luxury tier remains active. The biggest sales of late 2025 included a $15.7M estate in Ross and a $15.0M home in Belvedere.

• Inventory Age: 60% of Marin's active listings as of December 2025 have been on the market for over two months without selling, offering a prime negotiation window for motivated buyers.

• Insurance Termination: A critical 2026 factor: 17% of California real estate agents reported transactions terminating in 2025 specifically due to the inability to find affordable homeowner's insurance.

Kyle Frazier DRE 01405738