3-Month Rolling Median Snapshot (Single-Family Homes)
If you want the cleanest “right now” read on Larkspur real estate without overreacting to one standout sale, this update uses a three-month rolling median view. In a low-volume, high-price market like Larkspur, rolling medians are one of the most reliable ways to track trend direction. These insights align perfectly with what are seeing and hearing from our buyers so far in 2026. We are also seeing this in homes our clients are bidding on.
Data Scope and Method (Read This First)
This report reflects City of Larkspur single-family homes using a three-month rolling median analysis window. The underlying dataset includes listings and closed sales meeting the report’s criteria, with sales closed on/after 11/1/2025. Report run date: 2/5/2026.
Larkspur Market at a Glance (3-Month Rolling Medians)
Activity (Report Totals = 10 Listings)
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Closed sales: 7
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Active listings: 2
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Pending sales: 0
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Other status: 1
Why this matters: With only 7 closed sales in the rolling window, the median is very useful - but it can move quickly if one or two unusually high or low sales close. Treat this as a directional “market temperature,” then confirm with hyper-local comparable sales. We use 30-day medians at Imagine Marin because they tend to filter out the noise created by one or two "outliers" and weekly market gyrations.
Larkspur Home Prices (3-Month Rolling Medians)
Median closed price
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$2,500,000
Median price per square foot
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$1,240.69 per sq ft
Closed price range (shows dispersion)
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$1,195,000 to $4,565,000
Closed $/sq ft range
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$679.05 to $1,688.86 per sq ft
Interpretation: Larkspur is not a “single-number” market. The spread is wide, which means micro-location, condition, layout, lot utility, and whether a home feels “turnkey” versus “project” are doing the heavy lifting. Pricing can vary substantially based on these factors.
What a “Typical” Closed Sale Looked Like (Median Home Profile)
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3 bedrooms / 2 bathrooms
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1,918 sq ft
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~0.24 acres (≈ 10,345 sq ft lot)
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Year built: 1970
Days on Market and Market Exposure (3-Month Rolling Medians)
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Median DOM: 37
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Median CDOM: 41
DOM vs CDOM (plain English): DOM reflects the current listing period; CDOM aggregates exposure across listing resets and often better reflects true market time.
Sale-to-List Results: Over-Ask vs Negotiated Outcomes
The report’s DOM “time-to-contract” buckets show a clear split:
Homes that sold fast (0–30 DOM)
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2 sales (28%)
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103.62% Sale Price / Original Price (SP/OP)
Translation: typically over asking—strong demand and clean positioning here.
Homes that took longer (31–60 DOM)
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5 sales (71%)
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91.25% SP/OP
Translation: meaningful negotiation once early momentum fades. Overpricing almost never works to seller's advantage. Marin buyers are smart.
Overall (closed sales, DOM-based table)
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97.44% SP/OP
Bottom line: In this rolling window, the market rewarded listings that were compelling and correctly positioned early, while homes that drifted into the second month often sold at a substantial discount to original list price. This lesson applies to all Marin markets.
What This Means for Larkspur Sellers
If you want a top outcome in Larkspur right now, you need to win the first 2–3 weeks.
Seller strategy that matches the data:
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Price for momentum, not for “testing the market.”
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Make “turnkey” obvious: staging, lighting, inspections, and disclosure clarity matter disproportionately in premium markets. Make every effort to reduce friction.
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If activity is soft early, plan a decisive adjustment, not slow reductions - leverage often shifts after ~21 days.
What This Means for Larkspur Buyers
Larkspur is behaving like two markets at once:
1) A-tier homes (location + condition + layout):
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Expect speed and competition.
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Your edge is preparation: how many other offers are expected, clean terms (get insurance squared away before writing your offer, if possible), and clear execution.
2) Homes that miss one or two A-tier boxes:
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The data, and recent experience, suggests negotiation becomes realistic after the first month.
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Strong offers here are built on comp logic and review of city resale and fire inspections.
Key Takeaway: Rolling Medians Are a Trend Tool—Micro-Comps Price Homes
This is a three-month rolling median snapshot with seven closed sales, so it’s excellent for trend direction but not sufficient by itself to price a specific home. For real decision-making, zoom into:
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the tightest micro-area comps,
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condition/renovation level,
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functional layout issues,
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lot usability and parking,
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and location drivers (traffic, views, proximity).
Larkspur Real Estate FAQ
What is a three-month rolling median in real estate?
A three-month rolling median measures the median of the most recent three months of sales, updating continuously. It smooths volatility in markets like Larkspur's with few monthly sales.
Why use rolling medians for Larkspur home prices?
Because sales volume is often low, a single outlier can distort month-to-month stats. Rolling medians reduce that distortion and better reflect trend direction. For specific homes, your agent needs to drill down into the micro-market (sometimes even to which side of the street a specific home occupies).
Are Larkspur homes selling over asking?
In this rolling window, homes selling in 0–30 days averaged 103.62% of original list price, while homes taking 31–60 days averaged 91.25%, indicating early momentum is strongly correlated with premium outcomes.
Sourcing Info
Source: MLS data compiled in a Compass Market Report for City of Larkspur – Single-Family Homes only (does not include condos or townhomes).
Method: Three-month rolling median snapshot.
Report criteria: Closed sales included 11/1/2025 through 2/5/26.
Report run date: 2/5/2026.
Kyle Frazier DRE 01405738
Maria Sandberg DRE 02173812
About the Author: Kyle Frazier is a Marin County real estate broker specializing in hyper-local market analysis and pricing strategy.
Data disclaimer: Data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and may include reporting errors or status changes.
