Quick Answer: Per BAREIS MLS, 1,668 single-family homes sold on the open market across twelve Marin County markets in the 12 months ending October 31, 2026. The 1,116 that went into contract within 30 days - the Sprint Market - closed at 106.35% of original list price. The 552 that took longer - the Stale Market - closed at 92.11%. That 14.2-point gap is worth about $350,000 on a typical Marin town's median, from about $116,000 in Novato to about $704,000 in Kentfield, and it widened from 12.5 points a year earlier because the Sprint got bigger and paid more while the Stale side stood still. Two in three Marin sellers make the Sprint. The one in three who miss it pay the Doubt Discount.
Key Takeaways
- Sprint v. Stale, Marin-wide: 67% of open-market single-family sales closed within 30 days at 106.35% of original list price; the rest closed at 92.11% (BAREIS MLS, 12 months ending October 31, 2026).
- The Stale Staircase: 0–30 days 106.35% · 31–60 days 95.18% · 61–90 days 91.21% · 91–120 days 88.07% · 120+ days 86.01%. Every 30 days unsold costs the seller another step.
- Widest gaps: Kentfield (21.4 points, about $704,000 on the median), Corte Madera (19.9, $418,000), Greenbrae (17.8, $421,000), Larkspur (17.5, $454,000), Mill Valley (17.2, $405,000), San Anselmo (17.1, $290,000).
- Narrowest gaps: Tiburon (9.8 points), Novato (9.3) and Ross (8.8, on three stale sales), each for a different reason.
- Eight of the twelve towns have a median of 17 days or fewer to contract, so the typical Marin sale is decided right around the 14-Day Line.
- Year over year, the Sprint share rose from 60% to 67% and its price from 103.69% to 106.35%; the Stale price barely moved, 91.15% to 92.11%.
What is the 14-Day Line, and why does it cost Marin sellers money?
The 14-Day Line is the point two weeks into a listing where the premium over asking price starts to fall. It sits inside what I call the Sprint Market: every home that goes into contract within its first 30 days. Everything that takes longer is the Stale Market. I measure both with one number, sale price as a percentage of original list price - not the price after the reduction, the price the seller started with - because the market grades a seller on that first first pricing decision.
Here is what the data confirms this year: Marin is not one market. It is two markets that share the same streets. Prepared, accurately priced homes draw competition in their first two weeks and close above asking. Homes that miss on price or presentation sit longer, and once they sit, the discount is often far larger than the original overreach. The numbers below show that discount, town by town.
Source: BAREIS MLS. Single-family residences, open-market (Closed) sales, 12 months ending October 31, 2026, compared with the 12 months ending October 31, 2025. Twelve markets: Sausalito, Tiburon, Mill Valley, Corte Madera, Larkspur, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Ross, San Anselmo, Fairfax, San Rafael and Novato. Sale price as a percentage of original list price is listing-weighted within each days-on-market bucket; the pooled figures weight each town's bucket by its sale count. Reported off-MLS sales are counted separately and excluded here. Figures as reported to BAREIS MLS as of November 4, 2026.
The Stale Staircase: what each month on the market costs
By looking at all of the 1,668 sales and how long they took to find a buyer, we can see a staircase going down. The first step down hurts most.
Days on market | Sales | Share | Sale price as % of original list price | Drop from the step above |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0–30 (the Sprint) | 1,116 | 67% | 106.35% | — |
31–60 | 278 | 17% | 95.18% | −11.2 points |
61–90 | 132 | 8% | 91.21% | −4.0 points |
91–120 | 65 | 4% | 88.07% | −3.1 points |
120+ | 77 | 5% | 86.01% | −2.1 points |
Eleven points between the Sprint and the first Stale step. On a $2,360,000 median - the median of the twelve town medians - that first step alone is about $264,000. By the time a listing passes 120 days it has given back about twenty points, and in most of these towns the buyers who are left are the ones looking for sweat equity.
The twelve-town ladder: where the gap is widest
The table below is the whole story in one place: for each town, how many sales made the Sprint, what the Sprint paid, what the Stale side paid, the gap in points, and what that gap is worth on the town's 12-month median. Biggest gap first.
Market | Open-market sales (12 mo.) | Sold within 30 days | Sprint price (% of original list) | Stale price (% of original list) | Gap | Gap on the median | 12-month median | Median days to contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kentfield | 34 | 24 (71%) | 109.20% | 87.79% | 21.4 pts | ~$704,000 | $3,287,500 | 11 |
Corte Madera | 63 | 48 (76%) | 111.33% | 91.44% | 19.9 pts | ~$418,000 | $2,100,000 | 10 |
Greenbrae | 29 | 23 (79%) | 110.59% | 92.84% | 17.8 pts | ~$421,000 | $2,370,000 | 11 |
Larkspur | 48 | 29 (60%) | 109.55% | 92.03% | 17.5 pts | ~$454,000 | $2,592,500 | 19 |
Mill Valley | 245 | 194 (79%) | 109.67% | 92.45% | 17.2 pts | ~$405,000 | $2,350,000 | 11 |
San Anselmo | 152 | 110 (72%) | 108.08% | 91.00% | 17.1 pts | ~$290,000 | $1,700,000 | 17 |
San Rafael | 473 | 291 (62%) | 105.67% | 91.40% | 14.3 pts | ~$214,000 | $1,500,000 | 21 |
Fairfax | 75 | 56 (75%) | 106.48% | 93.02% | 13.5 pts | ~$162,000 | $1,200,000 | 18 |
Sausalito | 42 | 33 (79%) | 107.29% | 94.59% | 12.7 pts | ~$310,000 | $2,441,667 | 16 |
Tiburon | 108 | 74 (69%) | 103.64% | 93.83% | 9.8 pts | ~$336,000 | $3,426,250 | 17 |
Novato | 379 | 217 (57%) | 101.99% | 92.73% | 9.3 pts | ~$116,000 | $1,250,000 | 25 |
Ross | 20 | 17 (85%) | 105.01% | 96.20% | 8.8 pts | ~$356,000 | $4,045,000 | 12 |
Three things stand out. First, five of the top six are Ross Valley and Twin Cities towns - Kentfield, Greenbrae, San Anselmo, Corte Madera and Larkspur - plus Mill Valley. The gap is widest in the middle and upper-middle of the county, not at the very top. Second, Larkspur is the outlier inside that group: only 60% of its sales made the Sprint, the second-lowest share of the twelve, yet the ones that did sprint closed at 109.55%. Larkspur rewards the prepared launch and punishes the rest. Third, the bottom of the ladder is small for three different reasons. Tiburon's Stale side holds at 93.83%, better than most of the county - my read is that sellers at that price point hold the line rather than chase. Novato's gap is small because its Sprint pays the least - 101.99%, the lowest Sprint premium of the twelve - not because stale Novato listings do well; they close at 92.73%. And Ross had only three sales that took longer than 30 days, so treat its gap as directional.
Where the 14-Day Line sits in each Marin town
Median days to contract is the practical read on where the 14-Day Line falls. Corte Madera is the fastest at 10 days; Mill Valley, Greenbrae and Kentfield are at 11; Ross at 12; Sausalito at 16; Tiburon and San Anselmo at 17. That is eight of twelve towns with a median of 17 days or fewer, which means that in two-thirds of Marin the typical home is in contract right around the 14-Day Line. Fairfax is at 18, Larkspur 19, San Rafael 21 and Novato 25. The slower the town, the more the first fourteen days matter, because the market gives a seller less cover for a mistake.
What changed from last year
A year ago, 60% of Marin's single-family sales made the Sprint, and they closed at 103.69% of original list price. This year 67% made the Sprint, at 106.35%. The Stale side barely moved: 91.15% last year, 92.11% this year. So the Sprint got bigger and paid more, the Stale Market stayed where it was, and the gap widened from 12.5 points to 14.2. The data confirms it: this market substantially rewards S-Tier Sellers, and it has become less forgiving towards everyone else.
Sellers: price for the first fourteen days, because there are no do-overs
An S-Tier Seller is in contract inside the 14-Day Line at or above original asking price. S-Tier Sellers don't get there by luck; they make five decisions in the weeks and months before the sign goes up. Every inspection and disclosure is in the packet on day one. In designated high and very high fire zones, insurability can be an issue, so the AB-38 inspection by the local fire district is done and items cleared. Surgical preparation is complete; not a remodel. A path down the proper launch arena (e.g. public or private marketing) is selected (this decision is made home by home). And, most importantly, the price is set accurately for the first fourteen days. All of this requires the guidance of an experienced, intelligent and thoughtful agent capable of good judgment and honest communication. And remember this: many agents get you to like them (and hire them) by telling you your house is worth more than it really is. It is called buying a listing. Those agents will very likely put you into the stale market and cost you a lot of money.
As I've said before, S-Tier Buyers pick S-Tier Sellers. They choose them because an S-Tier Seller gives them nothing to doubt - and nothing to discount. The question to ask any agent you interview is simple: where is the 14-Day Line in my town and my price range right now, and what is your plan before day one? If the answer doesn't come with numbers and a sensible break down of exactly the path they see, you have a problem. If you want a data-driven second opinion on value, we are here to help.
Buyers: compete in the Sprint, negotiate on the Stale side
The ladder is a buyer's map. In the Sprint you compete: underwriting done before you write, financing locked, clean terms. Zero doubt, zero drag - that is how a loan beats cash. On the Stale side you negotiate: 552 Marin homes took longer than 30 days this past year and closed at 92.11% of original list price. Stale homes are where you find relative value and have the greatest likelihood of creating sweat equity. San Rafael has the most of them - 182 of its 473 sales, 38%. Tiburon's home prices are the most rigid, while Novato's are the lowest-priced entry into the county on a price per foot basis. And none of this includes the sales that never reached the open market, which I discuss separately on my off-market page.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sprint v. Stale framework in Marin real estate?
Sprint v. Stale splits every sale at 30 days on market. Per BAREIS MLS, in the 12 months ending October 31, 2026, the 1,116 Marin single-family homes that went into contract within 30 days (the Sprint Market) closed at 106.35% of original list price, while the 552 that took longer (the Stale Market) closed at 92.11%. The 14.2-point gap is the Doubt Discount: the price a seller pays for launching before the home was ready or priced for a do-over.
What is the 14-Day Line?
The 14-Day Line is the point two weeks into a listing where the premium over asking price starts to fall. It sits inside the 30-day Sprint. Per BAREIS MLS, eight of the twelve Marin markets in this analysis have a median of 17 days or fewer to contract (Corte Madera 10, Mill Valley 11, Greenbrae 11, Kentfield 11, Ross 12, Sausalito 16, Tiburon 17, San Anselmo 17), so the typical Marin sale is decided right around that line.
Which Marin town has the biggest gap between fast and slow sales?
Kentfield, per BAREIS MLS: in the 12 months ending October 31, 2026, the 24 Kentfield homes that sold within 30 days closed at 109.20% of original list price and the 10 that took longer closed at 87.79%, a 21.4-point gap worth about $704,000 on Kentfield's $3,287,500 median. Corte Madera (19.9 points), Greenbrae (17.8), Larkspur (17.5), Mill Valley (17.2) and San Anselmo (17.1) follow.
How much does it cost to miss the first 30 days in Marin?
About 14 points of original list price across Marin as a whole, which is roughly $350,000 on a typical town's median — from about $116,000 in Novato to about $704,000 in Kentfield (BAREIS MLS, 12 months ending October 31, 2026). The cost compounds: sales at 31–60 days closed at 95.18%, 61–90 days at 91.21%, 91–120 days at 88.07%, and past 120 days at 86.01%.
Is the Marin market getting more or less forgiving of overpricing?
Less forgiving. Per BAREIS MLS, the share of Marin single-family sales closing within 30 days rose from 60% in the 12 months ending October 31, 2025 to 67% in the 12 months ending October 31, 2026, and the Sprint price rose from 103.69% to 106.35% of original list price. The Stale price moved only from 91.15% to 92.11%. The gap widened from 12.5 points to 14.2.
Where do I find these numbers for my own town each month?
On the town guides at imaginemarin.com, updated monthly from BAREIS MLS: each guide carries the current Sprint v. Stale split, the 14-Day Line, the four-window table and the off-market layer for that town. Start at the Marin neighborhood and town guides, and watch the companion video on my channel, @KyleFrazier.
Where does your home sit on the staircase?
I'm Kyle Frazier — JD, CRS, CLHMS, Broker Associate at Compass, and a Marin County broker for more than 20 years, quoted on this market by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and San Francisco Chronicle. I run these numbers every month across all of Marin, street by street when it matters. For owners, start with a data-driven valuation second opinion. For buyers, my clients obtain full underwriting up front so their offers compete like cash, with access to off-market and pre-market homes that never reach the portals.
Book a consultation · Call or text (415) 350-9440 · [email protected] · Explore the Marin neighborhood guides.
