Quick Answer: In 2026, $5 million buys about 2,740 square feet at the beach in Stinson, Bolinas and Muir Beach and about 5,970 square feet in San Rafael, per BAREIS MLS. Between those two rungs sit the Ferry Towns of Larkspur, Corte Madera and Greenbrae (about 3,040), Kentfield and Ross (3,240), Tiburon and Belvedere (3,370), Mill Valley (3,410), Sausalito (3,580), San Anselmo and Fairfax (3,640), the West Marin Ranchlands (4,130, one sale) and Novato (5,110, one sale). The figures come from all 122 single-family homes that closed between $4 million and $6 million in Marin County from January 1 through October 20, 2026, including the 37 that never hit the open market. I call it the $5 Million Ladder, and it runs on a map I call the Eleven Marins.
This article is written for buyers who want the real closings rather than an aggregator-site estimate, and for sellers in this price range who want to know what the market rewarded this year. The county-level tables and my quarterly method are on the Marin Market Intelligence page; the video version is below and on my YouTube channel. The $3 million version of this analysis is the $3 Million Ladder.
Key Takeaways — $5 million in Marin, 2026 year to date, per BAREIS MLS:
- The same $5 million buys more than double the house depending on the market: about 2,740 sq ft at the Beach versus about 5,970 sq ft in San Rafael, at each market's median price per square foot.
- Nearly one in three of these homes (37 of 122) never hit the open MLS. In Mill Valley it was 12 of 24, exactly half.
- The $5 million market got faster this year: 122 sales versus 95 in the same window of 2025, open-market median days to contract 12 versus 24, and 52% sold over original asking price versus 36%. Five million dollars bought about 3,720 square feet a year ago; it buys about 3,450 now.
- Sprint vs. Stale holds at $5 million. Open-market homes in contract within 30 days closed at 106.3% of original asking price; past 30 days, 90.4%. Inside the Day-14 Line, 108.9%.
- At $5 million you are paying for one of four things, and sometimes two: the Address, the House, the Land or the Town. The price per foot tells you which. Nobody in this band got all four.
- Only 7 of the 122 homes were built this decade.
What Is the $5 Million Ladder?
I pulled every single-family home in Marin County that closed between $4 million and $6 million from January 1 through October 20, 2026. That is 122 sales. It includes the 37 that sold without ever hitting the open market, because BAREIS reports those as Sold Off MLS and the aggregator sites never see them. For each market I took the median price per square foot and asked a simple question: at that rate, how many square feet does $5 million buy?
Across the whole county, the median home in this band is 3,392 square feet, four bedrooms and four baths, on about a third of an acre, built in 1965, at about $1,451 per square foot, in contract in 12 days. Of course, nobody buys the county. You buy a market, and at $5 million the market decides what you are paying for.
The Eleven Marins
Here's what I know. Most people divide Marin into three pieces: Southern Marin, which is everything south of Sir Francis Drake; Central Marin, which is San Rafael; and Northern Marin, which is Novato. That map tells you one thing, how far you are from the Golden Gate Bridge, and a buyer coming over from the city already knows that.
So here is the map I use. There is no Marin market. There are eleven, and each one sells something the others don't. Market is the postal city on the address, which is what BAREIS carries, so every number on this page can be re-run.
Market | Towns | What it sells | Postal cities (BAREIS) |
|---|---|---|---|
The Harbor | Sausalito | The bridge at your door and a harbor view | Sausalito |
The Canyon Town | Mill Valley | Mount Tam at your back and a downtown you can walk to; includes Tam Valley, Strawberry, Homestead and Almonte | Mill Valley |
The View Peninsula | Tiburon / Belvedere | The skyline across the water | Tiburon, Belvedere |
The Ferry Towns | Larkspur / Corte Madera / Greenbrae | The shortest commute in the county, by boat or by car | Larkspur, Corte Madera, Greenbrae |
The Estate Flats | Kentfield / Ross | Level estate land close to the bridge | Kentfield, Ross |
The Craftsman Valley | San Anselmo / Fairfax | The most character per dollar in the Ross Valley | San Anselmo, Fairfax |
The Beach | The Beach | The Pacific | Stinson Beach, Bolinas, Muir Beach, Dillon Beach |
The Ranchlands | West Marin Ranchlands | Acreage and quiet | Nicasio, Point Reyes Station, Inverness, Olema, Marshall, Tomales |
The Valley | San Geronimo Valley | Redwoods and a creek, fifteen minutes past Fairfax | Woodacre, San Geronimo, Forest Knolls, Lagunitas |
The City | San Rafael | Choice: more kinds of house at more prices than anywhere else in Marin | San Rafael (94901, 94903) |
The Land | Novato | Room: the biggest lots, the newest homes and the most sun | Novato (94945, 94947, 94949) |
Greenbrae sits with the Ferry Towns here; in the $3 Million Ladder it was grouped with Kentfield. Tam Valley, Strawberry, Homestead and Almonte are postal Mill Valley and stay inside it. Marin City addresses are postal Sausalito.
Once you see Marin that way, "what does $5 million buy" is a different question. It isn't how many square feet. It's what you're paying for.
The $5 Million Ladder, Market by Market
Sorted from the least house for the money to the most. "What $5M buys" is $5,000,000 divided by the market's median closed price per square foot. Days to contract and the over-asking share use open-market sales only; the off-market column counts every sale. "Active today" is the number of active listings in the band as of October 20, 2026.
Market | Sales | Median $/sq ft | What $5M buys | Median lot | Median year built | Days to contract / sold over original asking | Never hit open MLS | Active today | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Beach | 6 | $1,823 | ~2,740 sq ft | 0.49 ac | 1975 | 26 days / 40% | 1 of 6 | 3 | |
Larkspur / Corte Madera / Greenbrae | 15 | $1,643 | ~3,040 sq ft | 0.22 ac | 1957 | 8 days / 88% | 7 of 15 (47%) | 0 | |
Kentfield / Ross | 15 | $1,543 | ~3,240 sq ft | 0.43 ac | 1956 | 10 days / 58% | 3 of 15 (20%) | 0 | |
Tiburon / Belvedere | 35 | $1,484 | ~3,370 sq ft | 0.26 ac | 1964 | 15 days / 42% | 9 of 35 (26%) | 8 | |
Mill Valley | 24 | $1,464 | ~3,410 sq ft | 0.32 ac | 1981 | 10 days / 67% | 12 of 24 (50%) | 3 | |
Sausalito | 10 | $1,398 | ~3,580 sq ft | 0.21 ac | 1954 | 19 days / 50% | 2 of 10 (20%) | 1 | |
San Anselmo / Fairfax | 5 | $1,374 | ~3,640 sq ft | 0.52 ac | 1952 | 7 days / 75% | 1 of 5 | 2 | |
West Marin Ranchlands* | 1 | $1,212 | ~4,130 sq ft | 1.51 ac | 2007 | 16 days / 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 | |
Novato* | 1 | $978 | ~5,110 sq ft | 1.18 ac | 1981 | 3 days / 100% | 0 of 1 | 1 | |
San Rafael | 10 | $837 | ~5,970 sq ft | 0.98 ac | 1989 | 62 days / 14% | 2 of 10 (20%) | 2 | |
San Geronimo Valley | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Per BAREIS MLS. Single-family residences, statuses Closed and Sold Off MLS, Marin County, sale price $4,000,000–$6,000,000, closed January 1 – October 20, 2026; pulled October 20, 2026. Market is the postal city on the address, grouped as above. *Small sample: read the Ranchlands and Novato as "what closed," not as a trend. San Anselmo/Fairfax (5) and the Beach (6) are also small.
Rung by Rung
The Beach: the top of the ladder
Six sales across Stinson Beach, Bolinas and Muir Beach, a small sample. At $1,823 per square foot, $5 million buys about 2,740 square feet, three bedrooms and three baths on about half an acre, built in the mid-1970s. Seadrift is the extreme: a cottage from 1980, about 1,800 square feet, closed at nearly $5.7 million, over $3,000 per square foot. But the beach does not sprint. The open-market median was 26 days to contract, and three of the five open-market sales closed below original asking price. Three active listings today, with a median asking price of $5.89M.
The Ferry Towns: the hottest rung
Fifteen sales in Larkspur, Corte Madera and Greenbrae, up from ten a year ago. At $1,643 per square foot, the second-highest rung, $5 million buys about 3,040 square feet, four bedrooms and four baths on a fifth of an acre, built in the late 1950s. A median of 8 days to contract. Seven of the eight open-market sales went over original asking price, and dollar-weighted the Ferry Towns closed at 109.1% of it. Seven of the fifteen sold off the MLS. And there is not one active listing in this band in the Ferry Towns today.
Kentfield and Ross: the only median above $5 million
Fifteen sales. At $1,543 per square foot, $5 million buys about 3,240 square feet, four bedrooms and four baths, but on a median of 0.43 acre, a bigger lot than any of the southern markets. The median sale here was $5.03M, the only market in the band above $5 million. Three of every four open-market sales went into contract inside the Day-14 Line, and the open-market median was 10 days. Zero active listings today, one pending.
Tiburon and Belvedere: the most sales, and the most choice
Thirty-five sales, more than one in four of the whole band (29%). At $1,484 per square foot, $5 million buys about 3,370 square feet, four bedrooms and four baths on a quarter acre, built around 1964. A median of 15 days to contract; 42% of open-market sales over original asking price, the lowest share of the southern markets. Nine of the thirty-five sold off the MLS. Eight active listings in the band today, the most of any market, about 2.2 months of supply at this year's pace. If you want choice at $5 million, Tiburon is where it is right now. The same $5 million is a flat lot in one neighborhood and a hillside home with a bay view in another.
Mill Valley: half the market is invisible
Twenty-four sales. Twelve of them never hit the MLS. That is exactly half, and the highest off-market share in the band. At $1,464 per square foot, $5 million buys about 3,410 square feet, four bedrooms and four baths on a third of an acre. On the open market, a median of 10 days to contract and two-thirds sold over original asking price; dollar-weighted, 107.2% of it. If you are waiting for Mill Valley at $5 million to show up on an aggregator site, you are seeing half the market.
Sausalito: the closest thing to the city
Ten sales, up from three in the same window last year. At $1,398 per square foot, $5 million buys about 3,580 square feet, four bedrooms and four baths on a fifth of an acre, built around 1954. A median of 19 days to contract; half of the open-market sales over original asking price. Two of the ten sold off the MLS. One active listing today.
San Anselmo and Fairfax: a small sample, and land
Five sales, admittedly a small sample, because most homes in San Anselmo and Fairfax sell well below this band. At $1,374 per square foot, $5 million buys about 3,640 square feet, and the lots jump to a median of half an acre. Every open-market sale went into contract inside 30 days. Two active and three in contract today.
The Ranchlands and the San Geronimo Valley: one sale, and none
One sale in the Ranchlands: a 2007 home in Point Reyes Station, about 4,100 square feet on an acre and a half, closed at exactly $5 million. That is the whole market this year. The San Geronimo Valley had no sales in the band and one active listing, 20 acres in Lagunitas that has been on the market since April and has been reduced from $5.5 million to $4.4 million. At $5 million, the Valley is a listing, not a market.
San Rafael: the most house, and the longest wait
Ten sales, up from three. At $837 per square foot, the bottom rung, $5 million buys almost 5,970 square feet, and the median home here is 5,048 square feet on about an acre, five bedrooms, five to six baths, built around 1989. That is where the money goes furthest. But, here is what I will tell you. It is also where it sits. The open-market median was 62 days to contract, three of the eight open-market sales took more than 120 days, and dollar-weighted San Rafael closed at 85.5% of original asking price. One estate came on at $7 million and closed at $5 million, 258 days later. You get the land and the choice in San Rafael. You don't get speed.
Novato: a one-house story
One sale in the band this year: about 4,100 square feet on 1.18 acres, closed at $4 million in three days, eight percent over original asking price. By my count, at $5 million or more only two Novato homes have sold since 2020: one in Rush Creek, and an 87-acre estate north of town with a 6,000-square-foot home. One active listing today, nearly six acres, on the market since June. At $5 million, Novato is where the land is, and where almost nothing trades.
What Changed Since Last Year
The same pull for the same window of 2025 is the comparison. The band got deeper and faster, and the money buys less house.
2025 (1/1–10/20) | 2026 (1/1–10/20) | |
|---|---|---|
Sales | 95 | 122 |
Never hit the open MLS | 26 (27%) | 37 (30%) |
Median sale price | $4,600,000 | $4,732,500 |
Median $/sq ft | $1,344 | $1,451 |
What $5M buys | ~3,720 sq ft | ~3,450 sq ft |
Median home | 3,431 sq ft, 0.33 ac, built 1965 | 3,392 sq ft, 0.31 ac, built 1965 |
Median days to contract (open market) | 24 | 12 |
In contract inside the Day-14 Line | 39% | 53% |
In contract inside 30 days (the Sprint) | 61% | 73% |
Sold over original asking price | 36% | 52% |
Sprint sale-to-original-asking (dollar-weighted) | 103.4% | 106.3% |
Stale sale-to-original-asking (dollar-weighted) | 94.3% | 90.4% |
Per BAREIS MLS, same criteria, closed January 1 – October 20 of each year. Off-market counts use every sale; days to contract, the Sprint and Day-14 shares, over-asking share and sale-to-original-asking use open-market sales only.
Side note: I checked whether the jump in price per foot is just a change in which markets sold. It isn't. Holding last year's mix of markets fixed, price per foot is still up about 6%, and the four big markets each rose on their own: Mill Valley from $1,234 to $1,464, Kentfield and Ross from $1,312 to $1,543, Tiburon and Belvedere from $1,324 to $1,484, the Ferry Towns from $1,484 to $1,643. The Beach's price per foot fell on paper, from $2,631 to $1,823, but last year's six sales were all Seadrift and Dipsea cottages and this year's include Bolinas, Muir Beach and the Panoramic hillside; that is mix, not a drop.
Sprint vs. Stale at $5 Million
The Sprint vs. Stale gap is alive at $5 million. On the 85 open-market sales in this band:
Days to contract | Open-market sales | Sale price vs. original asking price |
|---|---|---|
0–14 days (inside the Day-14 Line) | 45 (53%) | 108.9% |
0–30 days (the Sprint) | 62 (73%) | 106.3% |
31+ days (the Stale) | 23 (27%) | 90.4% |
121+ days | 5 (6%) | 83.7% |
Per BAREIS MLS, open-market (Closed) single-family sales, $4M–$6M, Marin County, closed 1/1–10/20/2026. Sale-to-original-asking is dollar-weighted within each group. The Stale Discount is 16 points; on the band's $4.73M median sale, the gap between a Sprint sale and a Stale sale is about $750,000. On a $5 million home it is about $800,000.
More than half of these homes (53%) were in contract inside 14 days. The other side of the table matters too: the stale rows are where a buyer's leverage lives, and three of the five homes that took more than 120 days this year were in San Rafael.
The Four Premiums: What $5 Million Is Really Buying
So, let's get to it. At $5 million you are paying for one of four things, and sometimes two. I call them the Four Premiums: the Address, the House, the Land and the Town. The price per foot tells you which one you paid for, and three cuts of the same 122 sales show it.
The Address
You are paying for the zip code: the scarcity, the reputation, and the liquidity when you sell. The house comes second. In Belvedere this year, a 900-square-foot cottage closed at $4 million, over $4,000 per square foot. Nobody paid that for the house. In Kentfield and Ross, three of every four open-market sales went into contract inside the Day-14 Line and there is not one active listing in the band today. The small-lot cut below is the Address premium in a table: the homes on less than a quarter acre sold at $1,545 per square foot, the homes on an acre or more at $936.
Lot size | Sales | Median $/sq ft | Median size | Median lot | Median year built | Days to contract / sold over original asking | Never hit open MLS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under 0.25 acre | 48 | $1,545 | 3,008 sq ft | 0.18 ac | 1960 | 15 days / 58% | 35% |
0.25 to 0.5 acre | 39 | $1,365 | 3,663 sq ft | 0.34 ac | 1962 | 9 days / 56% | 31% |
0.5 to 1 acre | 20 | $1,398 | 3,476 sq ft | 0.65 ac | 1970 | 16 days / 46% | 35% |
1 acre or more | 14 | $936 | 4,742 sq ft | 1.54 ac | 1983 | 14 days / 33% | 7% |
The House
The exceptional home: new, rebuilt, turnkey. You are buying a home, not a project. Homes built in 2015 or later sold at $1,646 per square foot, 67% of them over original asking price, and 40% never hit the MLS. There were only 10 of them in 122 sales. In downtown Mill Valley, a 2019 build of about 2,000 square feet closed at $5.4 million, 130% of original asking price, in two days.
Build era | Sales | Median $/sq ft | Median size | Median lot | Median year built | Days to contract / sold over original asking | Never hit open MLS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Built 2015 or later | 10 | $1,646 | 3,324 sq ft | 0.28 ac | 2024 | 20 days / 67% | 40% |
Built 1990 to 2014 | 22 | $1,196 | 4,032 sq ft | 0.33 ac | 2001 | 15 days / 43% | 32% |
Built before 1990 | 87 | $1,468 | 3,094 sq ft | 0.29 ac | 1957 | 11 days / 54% | 30% |
The Land
Acreage, privacy, the biggest house in the band, or simply a level lot: in Marin, flat ground is its own premium. On an acre or more, $936 per square foot buys a median of 4,742 square feet on 1.54 acres. Of course, this is the one premium where buyers have leverage: only 33% of the open-market acre-plus sales went over original asking price, only one of the fourteen sold off the MLS, and the two largest San Rafael estates in the band took 258 and 286 days and closed at 71% and 83% of their original asking prices.
The Town
A downtown you can walk to and a house that fits the street. And walkable means flat, not close. On a map, a canyon home in Mill Valley looks like a short walk to town; what the map does not show is the hill, the blind turns and the absence of sidewalks. Walking down for dinner is easy. Walking back up is a hike. The small homes in this band, under 2,800 square feet, sold at $1,830 per square foot, the highest of any cut, in a median of 9 days, with 65% over original asking price. In Greenbrae, a 1957 home of about 2,500 square feet closed at exactly $5 million, 125% of original asking price, in eight days.
Home size | Sales | Median $/sq ft | Median size | Median lot | Median year built | Days to contract / sold over original asking | Never hit open MLS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under 2,800 sq ft | 31 | $1,830 | 2,526 sq ft | 0.21 ac | 1958 | 9 days / 65% | 26% |
2,800 to 3,800 sq ft | 49 | $1,463 | 3,143 sq ft | 0.25 ac | 1961 | 12 days / 58% | 37% |
3,800 sq ft or more | 42 | $1,170 | 4,325 sq ft | 0.47 ac | 1980 | 20 days / 37% | 26% |
Per BAREIS MLS, all 122 sales in the band unless noted; days to contract and over-asking share use open-market sales only. One sale has no recorded lot size and three have no recorded year built; they are excluded from those cuts only.
Water and views are the multiplier, not a fifth premium. They sit on top of whichever premium you chose and raise its price. Belvedere is the Address plus water. At Seadrift, the water is the address. A Sausalito hillside is the Town plus a view. That is why the Beach sits at the top of the ladder.
The Rule of Two
Here is the rule. Five million dollars buys two of the four. I looked at every closing in this band and nobody got all four. When a home carries three, a new house on an acre in Ross, it sells above this band. So the question for a buyer is not "what do I want." It is "which two am I paying for, and which two am I giving up."
I would rather keep exact addresses quiet out of respect for the new owners, so these are described by town. Every one is a 2026 closing in the $4 million to $6 million band, per BAREIS MLS.
- Address + Town. A 1950 home in Ross on a quarter acre, about 3,000 square feet, sold at 121% of original asking price in 11 days. The buyer gave up the house and the land.
- Address + House. A 2023 build in Tiburon on a sixth of an acre, about 2,700 square feet, $4.9 million at 114% of original asking price in seven days. Gave up the land.
- Town + House. A brand-new home in downtown Larkspur, about 2,450 square feet on a tenth of an acre, $4.175 million. Gave up the land.
- Land + House. A 2003 estate in San Rafael, about 6,400 square feet on two acres, $4.8 million, after 286 days at 83% of original asking price. No Address, no Town, and the buyers took their time.
- Address + Land. Kentfield, over an acre, about 2,500 square feet built in 1953, $4.75 million at about $1,880 per square foot, in four days. Only a handful of closings look like this, and it costs you the house.
The rarest pairing is the Land and the Town together: a level lot you can walk to town from. BAREIS carries no field for slope or walkability, so the closest cut in the data is size against lot: the homes under 2,800 square feet sold at $1,830 per square foot, and the homes on half an acre or more at $1,234 (n=34). The flat, walkable house is the one where the car stays in the driveway on Saturdays, and it is why the small homes in town are the most expensive in the county on a price per foot basis.
Nearly One in Three Never Hit the Open Market
37 of the 122 sales, 30%, were reported to BAREIS as Sold Off MLS: never a public listing, never a portal alert. That is up from 27% in this band a year ago, up from one in six at $3 million, and well above the 13.1% I reported for the whole county across all price points in the Q3 2026 report. It fits the pattern in my off-market sales study: the more expensive the house, the more likely it trades quietly. In Mill Valley it was half. In the Ferry Towns, seven of fifteen.
This is one of the most important reasons a buyer at this price needs an agent who is in the room where it happens. I am a member of Marin Platinum Group and Top Agent Network, which is where these homes get shared before they get listed, if they ever get listed. My off-market homes page explains how that works.
New Construction at $5 Million: Seven Homes in 122
As we know, new homes almost never get built at scale in Marin County, and the data says it plainly: of the 122 homes in this band, 7 were built this decade. Kind of shocking, really. Just seven. The one project to watch in this price range is Mallard Pointe, on the lagoon in Belvedere. It is still a ways out and pricing is to be determined, but I expect demand to be very strong and prices to land well above this band. It is also the rare case that carries all four premiums: the House, the Town, the Address and the Land.
If You Are Buying at $5 Million: Pick Your Two First
The $5 million is the same on every rung. Decide which two premiums you are paying for before you fall for a house, because the market has already priced them. Then:
- If the Land is one of your two, you have leverage. Acre-plus homes sold over original asking price only a third of the time, and the stale listings in San Rafael are where you find relative value and have the greatest likelihood of creating sweat equity.
- If the Address or the Town is one of your two, you have none. Be an S-Tier Buyer before you tour: underwriting done, confidence in yourself and your agent at peak levels, clean terms. The homes you want are closing inside 14 days at 108.9% of original asking price.
- Search the whole market, not the portal. Nearly one in three of these homes never hit the MLS, and in Mill Valley it was half. If your search is a saved search on an aggregator site, you are missing a third of the market.
- Read the Sprint vs. Stale split in your market before you bid. A Ferry Towns house on day 8 and a San Rafael estate on day 120 are different negotiations.
- Underwrite insurance early. In Marin's designated high and very high fire zones, homeowners insurance can set the pace of a sale. Get quotes during your diligence period, not after.
If you are selling in this band: know which two premiums your home carries and price to those, not to the neighbor's sale. Launch with the inspections and disclosures done, the insurance quotes in the packet, and the price accurately set for the first 14 days, and you sell in the Sprint at 108.9% of original asking price. Launch without them and you are the lingering stale listing selling at 90.4%. And decide with your agent whether your home belongs in the Public Sprint or the Private Sprint; in Mill Valley this year, half the sellers at this price chose private. The five S-Tier Seller decisions are the playbook.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does $5 million buy in Marin County in 2026?
Per BAREIS MLS, at each market's median closed price per square foot for single-family sales between $4 million and $6 million (January 1 – October 20, 2026), $5 million buys about 2,740 square feet at the Beach (Stinson Beach, Bolinas, Muir Beach), 3,040 in Larkspur, Corte Madera and Greenbrae, 3,240 in Kentfield and Ross, 3,370 in Tiburon and Belvedere, 3,410 in Mill Valley, 3,580 in Sausalito, 3,640 in San Anselmo and Fairfax and 5,970 in San Rafael. The county-wide median home in that band is 3,392 square feet, four bedrooms and four baths on about a third of an acre, built in 1965.
What are the Eleven Marins?
The Eleven Marins is the sub-market map I use instead of Southern, Central and Northern Marin: Sausalito; Mill Valley; Tiburon and Belvedere; Larkspur, Corte Madera and Greenbrae (the Ferry Towns); Kentfield and Ross; San Anselmo and Fairfax; the Beach (Stinson Beach, Bolinas, Muir Beach and Dillon Beach); the West Marin Ranchlands (Nicasio, Point Reyes Station, Inverness, Olema, Marshall and Tomales); the San Geronimo Valley; San Rafael; and Novato. Each is defined by postal city so the numbers can be re-run from BAREIS MLS, and each sells something the others do not.
Which Marin town has the most homes selling around $5 million?
Tiburon and Belvedere, with 35 of the 122 sales in the $4 million to $6 million band so far in 2026, per BAREIS MLS. Mill Valley follows with 24, then Larkspur, Corte Madera and Greenbrae (15), Kentfield and Ross (15), Sausalito (10) and San Rafael (10).
How many $5 million Marin homes sell off-market?
37 of 122, about 30%, were reported to BAREIS MLS as Sold Off MLS between January 1 and October 20, 2026. The share was highest in Mill Valley (12 of 24) and the Ferry Towns (7 of 15).
How fast do $5 million homes sell in Marin?
The open-market median was 12 days to contract across the county, per BAREIS MLS, down from 24 in the same window of 2025. It ranged from 8 days in Larkspur, Corte Madera and Greenbrae to 26 at the Beach and 62 in San Rafael. Homes in contract within 14 days closed at 108.9% of original asking price; homes that took more than 30 days closed at 90.4%.
What are the Four Premiums and the Rule of Two?
The Four Premiums are the four things a $5 million buyer in Marin is paying for: the Address (the zip code itself), the House (new, rebuilt or turnkey), the Land (acreage and privacy) and the Town (a walkable downtown). Water and views multiply whichever one you chose. In the 2026 BAREIS data, homes on less than a quarter acre sold at $1,545 per square foot and homes on an acre or more at $936; homes built since 2015 at $1,646; homes under 2,800 square feet at $1,830. The Rule of Two: $5 million buys two of the four. No closing in the band carried all four, and a home with three sells above it.
Want to know which two are yours?
Tell me the markets you are circling and your timeline, and I will send you the actual closings there this year, off-market included, before you spend another weekend driving around.
Kyle Frazier, JD | Broker Associate, Compass | (415) 350-9440 | [email protected]
Author: Kyle Frazier, JD, CRS, CLHMS — Broker Associate, Compass, DRE# 01405738. Source data: BAREIS MLS, Marin County single-family residences, statuses Closed and Sold Off MLS, sale price $4,000,000–$6,000,000, closed January 1 – October 20, 2026; pulled October 20, 2026 (122 sales). Prior-year comparison uses the same criteria for January 1 – October 20, 2025 (95 sales). Active listings as of October 20, 2026. "What $5M buys" is $5,000,000 divided by the market's median closed price per square foot. Lot size, bedrooms, baths, year built, price per square foot and off-market share use all sales; days to contract, over-asking share and sale-to-original-asking use the 85 open-market (Closed) sales, dollar-weighted within each days-to-contract group. Market is the postal city on the address. Small groups (San Anselmo and Fairfax, 5; the Beach, 6; the Ranchlands, 1; Novato, 1) describe what closed and should not be read as trends. The Novato "two sales at $5 million or more since 2020" statement is the author's count. Mallard Pointe is a proposed development; pricing and timing are not yet set, and the author's expectations about its demand and pricing are opinion. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed; subject to revision as late-reported sales post to the MLS. Not legal, tax or investment advice.
